Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.050282 0.057219 0.064981 0.074352 0.085410 0.098110 0.113892
2025-12-14 0.039186 0.047563 0.057708 0.071036 0.088280 0.110115 0.140300
2025-12-21 0.030005 0.038350 0.049127 0.064318 0.085588 0.114950 0.159705
2025-12-28 0.025208 0.033833 0.045681 0.063577 0.090710 0.131675 0.201025
2026-01-04 0.021866 0.030719 0.043608 0.064423 0.098576 0.155086 0.262013
2026-01-11 0.018915 0.027682 0.041136 0.064252 0.105131 0.179100 0.335802
2026-01-18 0.016495 0.025058 0.038851 0.063973 0.111725 0.206150 0.430881
2026-01-25 0.014220 0.022309 0.035903 0.061975 0.114892 0.228566 0.531444
2026-02-01 0.012179 0.019642 0.032652 0.058768 0.114984 0.245319 0.632131
2026-02-08 0.010911 0.018116 0.031172 0.058695 0.121896 0.281569 0.819229
2026-02-15 0.009858 0.016817 0.029898 0.058798 0.129485 0.324173 1.072536
2026-02-22 0.009043 0.015841 0.029084 0.059745 0.139719 0.380820 1.452306
2026-03-01 0.008281 0.014879 0.028189 0.060461 0.150250 0.447498 1.994334
2026-03-08 0.007455 0.013679 0.026605 0.059192 0.155049 0.499832 2.578209
2026-03-15 0.006507 0.012115 0.023998 0.054787 0.149034 0.509198 2.937637
2026-03-22 0.006009 0.011420 0.023217 0.055004 0.158091 0.589191 4.049943
2026-03-29 0.005644 0.010957 0.022893 0.056422 0.172171 0.707448 5.992493
2026-04-05 0.005261 0.010405 0.022271 0.056868 0.183297 0.825867 8.633298
2026-04-12 0.004909 0.009879 0.021630 0.057120 0.194137 0.959054 12.547137
2026-04-19 0.004518 0.009219 0.020554 0.055774 0.198001 1.057238 16.925012
2026-04-26 0.004118 0.008494 0.019209 0.053260 0.195811 1.114620 21.265055
2026-05-03 0.003875 0.008112 0.018709 0.053454 0.206495 1.289699 32.267981
2026-05-10 0.003659 0.007770 0.018268 0.053762 0.218227 1.499900 50.821128